2010 Predictions by Enche Tjin

Inspired with Thom Hogan prediction page, I will like to predict DSLR/interchangeable lens camera business landscape in 2010. I have simple idea to determine what company will be successful in 2010. I believe that a company need to take a position as super high-end or super low cost position to be successful.

So, lets look at each camera maker and I will sum up with the chart in the end.

Leica

After getting through many obstacles transitioning from analog film to digital era, At last Leica can keep up with the technology this year. It seems like hefty R&D cost that Leica paid last year were well paid off. In 2009, Leica introduces three products that might deliver. Leica M9, a full frame digital camera, which is long waited by its fans, Leica S2, medium format camera for very serious studio works, and Leica X1, compact camera that has APS-C size sensor. Leica also have Leica D-Lux4 in their arsenal, a versatile compact camera.

Leica did many things  right because they consistently aim for high end market. Leica camera such as M9 is hand-made and limited in production. Leica has an unique and powerful aura that make many photo enthusiasts lust over it. Leica will definitely successful in 2010 soon Leica M9, X1 and S2 hit the market.

Leica product prediction:

• Leica D-Lux 4 update, with better image sensor and hi-res LCD screen (look at Panasonic LX4)

Nikon & Canon

It is easier to discuss Nikon and Canon in one section because they are going after the same market and similar product line.

Nikon has a very good strategy this year, and if they continue it to 2010, Nikon might beat its arch-rival Canon handily. In beginner camera business, Nikon released cheaper DSLR cameras than Canon. It has D3000, which is a bit less than $500, and D5000 is around $650. All of them are cheaper than what Canon offers. Before, Canon cameras are famous for it low cost products, but this year,  Canon position is threatened.

Meanwhile, in pro grade camera business, Nikon makes minor updates to its product, D300s and D3s. Canon however, introduce significant upgrades in form of Canon 7D and Canon 1d mark IV. However, these introductions might not be powerful enough to lure Nikonians to switch side.

Next year, it is time for Nikon to introduce major upgrade to its product line up, it might be Nikon D700x or D800, and D4000. This will pose more threats to Canon.

Canon must be very cautious. They need something that break the stall, like introducing super cheap interchangeable camera whether it is DSLR camera or mirrorless system.

Canon New product prediction:

• Canon XSi or XS successor, with  hi-res lcd screen and basic video recording.
• Canon 60D will have new AF system (similar to 7D), video recording, smaller viewfinder size and slower continuous shooting (6-6.5 fps).
• Advanced compact camera that use APS-C image sensor.
• Some updates on L lenses, this will include new 70-200mm f/2.8 IS USM and telephoto 100-400mm IS USM.

Reality

• Canon announces Canon 70-200mm f/2.8 IS USM II on 5th January 2010
• No plan for mirrorless camera
• Canon 60D still has old AF system, lose magnesium alloy body but has swivel LCD screen and weather sealed.
• No Canon XSi/XS successor
• No advanced compact camera with APS-C sensor
• No telephoto 100-400mm IS USM
• I pretty much screw up in Canon prediction this year hehe

Nikon new product prediction:

• Nikon D4000  will sit between D3000 and D5000. It will have new sensor similar to D5000/D90/D300, no built-in AF to save cost, and might have live view but no video recording. At that time, D3000 will be the cheapest DSLR camera (approx $450 with lens).
• Nikon D700x or D800, a successor to Nikon D700. It will inherit most of the D700 features, plus higher resolution sensor (might be around 14 to 18 mp).  It will has video recording feature as well.
• Nikon lenses: New Nikon 135mm f/2 lens, a couple affordable AF-S lenses for Nikon beginners cameras such as 24mm prime or 50mm macro lens,  and a superzoom lens for FX cameras that will replace 24-120mm.

Reality

• Nikon announces Nikon 24mm f/1.4 and 16-35mm f/2.8 for FX camera on Feb 2010
  
• Nikon announces Nikon D3100, a first Nikon camera to have full HD video recording and full time continuous focus in live view mode (August 2010)
• Nikon announces four new lenses, three of the lenses are for FX cameras: 85mm f/1.4G, 28-300mm, 24-120mm and DX 55-300mm
• Nikon announces more lenses, 35mm f/1.4G and new 200mm f/2G VR

Pentax

Pentax make a surprising come back at the second half of 2009, and they could continue riding it to next year. Pentax gain great momentum with the introduction of Pentax K7 and especially Pentax K-x. Several years ago, we know that Pentax cameras are quite expensive. But at the beginning of 2009, Pentax changed its strategy completely from offering premium cameras to  low cost cameras.

Pentax K-x is a full-featured camera but has the lowest price tag compared to Canon or Nikon. Pentax K7 is premium camera that is much cheaper than Canon or Nikon offering. If Pentax stays solid in this strategy, they might successful in 2010, at least, they will be better than the last few years.

Pentax new product prediction:

• Update on Pentax K7. It will have better image sensor, same casing, better processor.
• New camera that positioned in the middle of K7 and K-x. Body design will be similar to K7, but no weather seal and smaller viewfinder. It will have sensor similar to Pentax k-x This camera will be selling at around $700.
• Lenses: A couple of Weather proof (WR) lenses.

Reality : Pentax K5 revealed, Pentax Kr announced. Kr is more identical to Kx instead of K7. New 18-135mm water resistant lens and 35mm f/2.4 lens.

Panasonic and Olympus

Panasonic and Olympus makes the scene in 2009 by introducing micro four thirds camera system. M43 camera and lenses are smaller than DSLR but have many characteristic like DSLR, such as interchangeable lens system and big image sensor.

Olympus comes with a classic-retro design camera, Olympus E-P1 and E-P2. At first, many fans thing that they will aimed at beginners, but the opposite is true. Olympus sets a high price tag to it and positioned the camera to luxury goods. It might work well, but the quality of the camera performance are less than expected. Auto focus is very slow and the screen resolution is not that good (E-P1). As a result Olympus loses momentum to Panasonic.

I predict Panasonic will be better off next year because their products are better executed and they have strategy that guide them. Panasonic cameras are hard to get, therefore, customers sense Panasonic cameras as rare products. Therefore, the price went up plus fans are crazy about getting one. It is all good for Panasonic.

Panasonic collaboration with Leica has been great too. Together they make 45mm leica lens, and I believe Panasonic learns a lot from Leica from lens production. Panasonic 20mm f/1.7 is also better received by the fans than Olympus 17mm f/2.8. There are many Olympus E-P1 users that want that lens. It boosts Panasonic image as a high-end camera and lens producer.

Panasonic new product prediction:

• Panasonic G2, will have hi-res LCD screen and upgraded image sensor. Better performance and processing power. No video mode. will be positioned as entry level camera to m43.
• Panasonic GF2, will have better external viewfinder, hi-res LCD screen, better performance.
• More gimmicky features such as in camera photo editing/retouch.
• Panasonic LX4 – with new image sensor, hi-res lcd screen
• Panasonic lenses: 14mm f/2.8 pancake lens, and 50mm or 70mm  f/1.8 or faster prime lens for portraiture.

Olympus new product prediction:

• Olympus E-P3 : Completely new camera body, with built-in viewfinder, built in flash with beautiful body design.
• Olympus E-5 : Classic four third system camera just to keep the format alive. Will have video recording feature, faster continuous shooting speed and new 12 mp image sensor.
• Olympus m43 lenses: This is already leaked because Olympus has shown their lens roadmap.

Reality

• Olympus introduces E-PL1, smallest micro four third system camera with built-in flash
• Olympus announces two new superzoom lens and lens roadmap for 2011
• Olympus announces E-5, which will be last 4/3 camera.

Ricoh

Ricoh is usually known as busines printing and solution company, but they are actually doing well as digital camera maker too. Even Ricoh is not well-known abroad, but Ricoh has solid and steady fans especially in Japan. Ricoh recent announcement of Ricoh GRX, a camera with interchangeable module/format has ignited debate across the net.

Most complaints are about price. But remember, Ricoh is in high-end market not in the low cost market, so higher price tag does not hurt them. Despite the high price tag, Ricoh does very well in camera interface, ergonomic and quality of its optics. Controversial concept like GXR will also attract many people to try Ricoh cameras, and it will be great opportunity for Ricoh to expand it fans base.

I predict Ricoh will do very well next year with GXR. Not in mainstream market but in niche, high-end market.

Ricoh new product prediction:

• Some new modules (lens-sensor) for GRX such as:
• Super zoom (15-20x) with small sensor.
• Storage module that will act as a backup harddisk.
• Short prime lens module (possibly an 24mm or equivalent to 35mm in full format) with APS-C sensor
• No mount modules (sorry guys).

Reality

• Ricoh introduces plan for 2010, a superzoom 10.7x lens block and 28mm f/2.5 with APS-C sensor lens block
• No other module yet.

Sony

In 2009, Sony does not make a lot of noise in DSLR landscape, but if we look closely, Sony is fixing its weaknesses in their system and might be ready to make a huge come back in 2010. Sony releases some DSLR lenses to complete their arsenal and updated its beginner cameras. Sony also make full frame camera a bit more affordable by introducing Sony A850 ($2000) to the market.

However, I think that Sony still does not have strategy on market positioning. They are not into low cost market, and not into high-end/luxury market as well. 2009 year is kind of wait and see for Sony. They are content with the sales number and not worry too much about it.

Introduction of video in DSLR cameras really put Sony in dilemma. In one hand, if Sony fit a video features into its DSLR cameras, it might cannibalized its successful camcorder business.

Sony might continue working on the new solution, perhaps coming with a new hybrid (DSLR-camera) system or will wait and see. Nevertheless, it is hard to predict what Sony will do with this condition. If they only wait and see, they will lose market share, but if they come out with something brilliant, they might be cool again.

Sony new product prediction:

• Successor to Sony A700: will have 14 mp sensor and focus on dynamic range and image quality in high ISO. It will be aimed towards studio or wedding photographers. Still no video mode.
• Successor to Sony A900: 24 mp sensor with better dynamic range and image quality in high ISO, no video mode.
• New camcorder/camera hybrid that might be mirrorless. Will sell at quite expensive price.

Reality:

• Sony announces A450 on 4th January 2010, it is another variant of A500-550 model
• Sony announces camcorder style camera hybrid that use mirrorless technology on July 2010
• Sony announces A560-A580 and A55-A33 which are using pellicle technology on August 2010

Samsung

Samsung is Pentax’s partner in digital SLR world, but this year,  their relationship has been broken. Samsung rejected to follow Pentax K7 footsteps and instead will come out with a new system called Samsung NX. This new system will be competing with Olympus and Panasonic. From the rumored spec, I don’t think it will be successful. It is as bulky as DSLR cameras but it won’t have a reputation of Canon or Nikon. Samsung will not do well in DSLR market.

However, in compact cameras and camcorders, Samsung might have a better chance. Samsung has flowed in a lot of money for R&D to make compact camera cool again. Samsung TL225 with dual LCD screen is one of their breakthrough.

Samsung new product prediction:

• Samsung NX and its lenses finally hit the market.
• Samsung release NX10 and NX100 with i-function feature

Sigma

I predict Sigma will also not doing very well in DSLR camera market. Sigma insists of using Foveon, which has effective pixel of 4 MP but Sigma claims that image quality is a lot better than other cameras. But I am pessimists that many people will buy into that. Sigma SD15 is delayed for months. It is most likely because Sigma has no clue on designing high performance DSLR camera to compete in this saturated market.

Sigma new product prediction:

• Sigma SD15, a full DSLR with Foveon sensor with improved processing speed.
• Sigma DP3, a compact camera with foveon sensor with improved processing speed and new low light prime lens such as 28mm f/2 or faster.
• As usual, Sigma will also updates their lenses especially in zoom lenses for full frame camera such as 28-300mm with OS and 100-300mm f4 with OS.

Reality: Sigma announces Sigma SD1 prototype which will employ 15 MP effective Foveon sensor

As a result….

Here is the momentum chart

Rise	Fall	Stall
Leica	Samsung	Sony
Ricoh	Canon	Olympus
Panasonic	Sigma
Pentax
Nikon

That is all folk, I hope you enjoy my analysis.

Tagged as: 2010

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